Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
A recession is unlikely in the APAC region in the coming year, although the area will face headwinds from higher interest rates and slower global trade growth, Moody's Analytics said on Thursday. In its analysis titled 'APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift', Moody's said India is headed for slower growth next year more in line with its long-term potential. On the upside, inward investment and productivity gains in technology as well as in agriculture could accelerate growth.
Speaking on the global outlook for the financial services industry during the event, hosted by the Coller Institute of Private Equity and London Business School, J Christopher Flowers said: "There are those in the financial institutions industry who think that we are facing permanently low returns on capital. I don't see it that way.
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Foreign investors have adopted a cautious stance and infused Rs 7,320 crore in the Indian equities in August owing to high valuation of stocks and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade after Bank of Japan raised interest rates. This investment was way lower than Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, according to data with the depositories. While September is likely to see continued interest from FPIs, the flows would be shaped by a combination of domestic political stability, economic indicators, global interest rate movements, market valuations, sectoral preferences, and the attractiveness of the debt market, Vipul Bhowar, Director Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
The first five months of 2023 have witnessed at least six major events/trends that augur badly for global economic and socio-political prospects, points out Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
"Now is the time for countries with room in their budgets to deploy -- or get ready to deploy -- fiscal firepower. In fact, low interest rates may give some policymakers additional money to spend," new IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said.
Foreign investors made a significant turnaround and injected over Rs 1,500 crore into Indian equities in February, reversing the massive outflows seen in the preceding month, primarily due to robust corporate earnings and positive economic growth. Additionally, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to be bullish on the debt markets as they put in over Rs 22,419 crore during the month under review, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead to March, the outlook for FPI flow appears promising, provided the current economic trajectory and corporate performance sustain their positive momentum, potentially continuing to attract foreign investment into Indian equities, Mayank Mehraa, smallcase manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha, said.
India's merchandise exports rose by 9.1 per cent to $38.13 billion in May even as the trade deficit widened to a seven-month high of $23.78 billion during the month, according to government data. Healthy growth in sectors, such as engineering, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and plastics helped register growth in exports despite global economic uncertainties.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
It was August 2007. Tata Steel was turning 100. Jamshedpur, its hometown, had an air of celebration. The line-up for the special event included the launch of Air Deccan's commercial flight connecting Kolkata and Jamshedpur, and release of Russi Lala's new book, Romance of Tata Steel. There was also the screening of The Spirit of Steel, a 20-minute documentary directed by Zafar Hai showcasing Tata Steel's legacy, and a corporate anthem penned by Javed Akhtar and composed by Shankar, Ehsaan and Loy.
The International Monetary Fund sees a long war in Iraq cutting global economic growth by up to two percentage points from a revised 2003 forecast of 3.3 per cent, Germany's Handelsblatt daily reported on Tuesday.
Worried by a spike in Chinese imports, the Indian Steel Association (ISA) plans to take up the matter with the government and seek measures to fix "trade distortions". Alok Sahay, secretary general of the group that represents the country's steel producers, said systemic changes were needed. "In order to take any trade measure, it takes a minimum of 15 months' time, due to prevalence of lesser duty rule in India, making India an easy target. "We are going to write to the government on this," he said.
The airlines' losses globally are expected to be down from $52 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion this year and industry-wide profit should be on the horizon in 2023, Director General of IATA Willie Walsh said in Doha on Monday. International Air Transport Association (IATA) represents some 290 airlines comprising 83 per cent of global air traffic. Walsh, in his inaugural speech at the 78th annual general meeting of IATA here, said that while the outlook for airlines globally is positive, the business environment remains challenging.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
The improved outlook on the Government of India announced by rating agency Moody's might need to be viewed with some scepticism. There is no doubt the performance of the Indian economy has sharply improved from the deep trough it hit last year. But the ability of the second largest global ratings agency to assess an upside and downside before events make everyone wise about India has been dismal for a long time, as the chart shows.
The airline industry is projected to register a net profit of $25.7 billion in 2024 as more normal growth is expected in both passenger and cargo segments, global grouping IATA said on Wednesday. For 2023, the net profit is estimated at $23.3 billion, significantly higher than the $9.8 billion projected by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in June this year. IATA has more than 300 airlines as members.
"The fundamental credit outlook for the Indian banking system remains negative, reflecting the currently challenging economic conditions and the rising level of problem loans," Moody's said in a report.
'With a solid investment programme and sustainable development strategy, India can exceed 7 per cent growth per year, or a doubling of high-quality national income within a decade.'
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Gold demand appears to be positive in India as the consumer sentiment is likely to recover in 2021, from its dismal performance due to the coronavirus pandemic-related disruptions and volatile price movement, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Initial data about the Dhanteras festival in November suggest that while jewellery demand was still below average, it had substantially recovered from the lows seen in the second quarter (April-June 2020) of last year, according to the report.
It is a wonder how pervasive and long-lasting the damage can be from a balance-sheet crisis, says Suman Bery.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the next fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 10.3 per cent, citing sharply high energy prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the Omicron wave subsiding quickly, containment measures have been scaled back, setting the stage for a pick-up in GDP growth momentum in the June quarter this year, the agency said. It has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.6 percentage points to 8.7 per cent.
From the 30-share pack, Adani Port, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, HCL Technologies and ICICI Bank were among the laggards. Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and Tata Steel were among the gainers.
The rating agency, however, pointed out that India's fiscal position remains precarious, with elevated fiscal deficits and net government indebtedness.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
The advanced economies have been experiencing their longest period of slow growth.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance emerged as the biggest gainer by climbing 2.95 per cent. Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Maruti, Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel were the other major winners. HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra and Titan were among the laggards.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecast for India to 9.5 per cent for the fiscal year to March 31, 2022 as the onset of a severe second COVID-19 wave cut into recovery momentum. This forecast for 2021-22 is lower than the 12.5 per cent growth in GDP that IMF had projected in April before the second wave took a grip. For 2022-23, IMF expects economic growth of 8.5 per cent, larger than the 6.9 per cent it had projected in April.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
'Although mid- and small-cap funds have the potential for higher growth, they come with inherent higher volatility.'
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
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